Saturday, January 15, 2011

College Football 2011

Now that we've closed out the 2010 season with the most exciting championship since the 2006 Rose Bowl and seen a good amount of draft decisions finalize, I think it's safe to look at 2011 and have a pretty good idea of what's going on. So here's what's going to happen. I'm going to go through each relevant conference and take a look at what their respective futures hold.  Then I'm going to predict the BCS Bowl games and rank the final top 10.  So here we go.

ACC
Not much here.  Virginia Tech loses Tyrod Taylor and its top two running backs and it looks like 2011 will be a rebuilding year for the Hokies.  That leaves Florida State as the front runner for the ACC title.  Although losing QB Christian Ponder hurts, their defense puts them above the rest of the now weak ACC.

Big East
Oh, I'm sorry, I said relevant conferences.  Nevermind then.  Just let me know how you're doing when you get TCU.

Big Ten (with 12 members)
Finally, a conference with a legitimate chance at being represented in the title game.  The hot topic will be the Ohio State suspensions, of course, and whether stars Terrelle Pryor, Dan Herron, and Devier Posey live up to their word and even come back in the first place.  Fortunately for the Buckeyes, Pryor and Company will miss playing Akron, Miami, Toledo, Colorado, and Michigan State.  Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the Michigan State game could very well be the one loss that keeps them out of the championship.  Wisconsin and running backs Monte Ball and James White may be able to capitalize, but they'll have tough time on defense with DE J.J. Watt gone to the NFL.

The likely opponent of Ohio State in the Big Ten title game will be newcomer Nebraska.  All of this is assuming QB Taylor Martinez remains a Cornhusker.  If not, then look to Michigan State to lead the Legends division.

Big 12 (with ten members)
Can we just take moment to laugh at Texas?

Now you know what it feels like to be a Sooner or Aggie.  Not only will Texas' arch rivals beat up on the Longhorns this year, they will beat up on everyone else.  Oklahoma is the front runner because of returning stars Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles, but I always have a hard time buying into the Sooners.  They do well during the regular season, win the hearts of the voters, and end up in the title game. However, Oklahoma is 1-3 in BCS national championship games, one of those being a 55-19 loss to USC in the 2004/5 title game.  Most of us also remember a game a couple of years ago that ended in a Statue of Liberty and marriage proposal.  The Sooners will go to New Orleans because they're Oklahoma, and the voters like Oklahoma.

Texas A&M will bring back receiver-turned-quarterback Ryan Tannehill and a tough defense to contend with Oklahoma.  With only 10 members, there will be no championship game, so Gabbert-less Missouri is a distant 3rd in the Big 12 title race.

Pac-12
In my mind, the new Pac-12 will replace the SEC as the most exciting conference for 2011.  Oregon will be in prime shape to make another run (no pun intended) at the title, returning LaMichael James among other stars.  They do lose a good chunk of their O-Line, WR Jeff Maehl, LB Casey Matthews, and DE/LB Kenny Rowe, but their in better shape than anyone else in the Pac-10.

Stanford fans cried in joy and sadness last week when it got QB Andrew Luck for another year but lost head coach Jim Harbaugh to the 49ers.  Stanford also loses a lot of O-lineman, but I have a lot of faith that with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck, the Cardinal will put up a good fight to Oregon and go to another BCS game.  Stanford also hired from within to replace Harbaugh, so the systems in place shouldn't take too much of a hit.

On the south side, the favorite is, well, Utah.  Unless USC's appeal goes through and gets the Trojans back into postseason action, the Utes will "Wynn" the Pac-12 South (I'm sure QB Jordan Wynn has never head that one before).  Bad humor aside, if Utah can survive a conference opener at USC, it can meet Oregon for the conference title game.

SEC
The big question is, who will represent the SEC in the championship this year?  Not Auburn, they lost Cam Newton and Nick Fairley.  Not Florida, they're still recovering from the Tebow hangover and the loss of head coach Urban Meyer.  Not Alabama, they're losing QB Greg McElroy, RB Mark Ingram, WR Julio Jones, and DE Marcell Dareus.  Not Arkansas, they're losing Ryan Mallett.  So who's left?

The conference title game looks like it will LSU and South Carolina, but the SEC will not send a team to the championship.  Because LSU plays Oregon on opening week, the two best teams will have already clashed.  And I'm going with Oregon in that game.

BCS Busters
Although they don't have the hype that they did this year, traditional BCS busters Boise State and TCU look to have enough firepower to pull it off again.  Boise returns most of this year's second-ranked defense as well as Heisman candidate Kellen Moore.  They open their season at Georgia, so they will have another opportunity to prove their worth in front of a large audience.  TCU loses Andy Dalton, and a lot of starters on defense but brings back Rose Bowl hero Tank Carder at linebacker. We'll just have to see where they end up.

BCS Games 2011

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Wisconsin
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. West Virginia
National Championship: Oregon vs. Oklahoma

Top 10
1. Oregon
2. Boise State
3. Oklahoma
4. LSU
5. Ohio State
6. Wisconsin
7. Stanford
8. South Carolina
9. Texas A&M
10. Florida State

I really do believe this will be the year that the SEC's national title streak ends, and it's because the SEC doesn't have a clear title favorite this year.  No conference will be in better position to upend them than the Pac-12, and although this may not last forever, or even into 2012, the SEC will be the #2 conference.

Also, I have Bosie State ranked #2 not because they are the second best team, but because they will be the second undefeated team.

So that's it for now.  Go watch your basketball and tune in again in September.

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