Biggest Surprises and Disappointments from NCAA Football

We're three weeks into this year's season of college football, and as there are every year, there are some surprises and disappointments.

On Saturday evening, I had the fortune (or misfortune) of seeing one of these surprises/disappointments in person at the Houston @ UCLA.  I was not alone in predicting a dissection of UCLA's defense by Houston's quarterback Case Keenum, but as it turned out, the majority of the nation's predictions turned out to be all wrong.  The UCLA Bruins' defense responded to a 35-point dismantling by Stanford by holding Houston's explosive offense to 3 points all the way until the fourth quarter and paving the way for a 31-13 Bruin victory.  So the game's summary went like this: Case Keenum disappoints with two interceptions and no touchdowns while UCLA surprises with newly a newly found defense and offense.  But that's just one local example of the annual tradition of exceeding and failing to meet expectations.  Let's start with those that are failing.

1. Virginia Tech
The Hokies started the season at #10 and a golden opportunity to get in the championship race with a week 1 game against #3 Boise St.  As we all know, Virginia Tech lost that game, and although it ended their championship hopes, their season was still intact and they still had a good chance to make another BCS bowl game.  Then came James Madison.  The Hokies stumbled against the FCS Division school and not only destroyed their season, but Boise State's as well.  Virginia Tech responded to that by falling behind to East Carolina before eventually coming back to win 49-27.  Any way you look at it, VT has not lived up to any of the standards expected of them to this point.  However, believe it or not, they still have a chance to make the Orange Bowl.  None of their games have been against ACC opponents, and as long as they win the conference, they can rebound and make it to Miami for a BCS bowl.

2. Mississippi
Following Virginia Tech would be the other big-time program to lose to an FCS school.  The Rebels took an opening week game against Jacksonville State to overtime, where they eventually lost 48-49.  The defensive woes were solved temporarily for the next week where they beat Tulane on the road, but on Saturday, the Jeremiah Masoli-led offense was only able to muster 14 points in a 28-14 loss at home to Vanderbilt.  Now this team didn't have an SEC championship on their "to-do list," but losing to FCS schools certainly should have been on their "to don't list."  Don't expect Ole Miss to be anything spectacular this year, even with former Heisman candidate Jeremiah Masoli at the helm.

3. Florida
Nobody expected new quarterback John Brantley to be the next Tim Tebow, but they certainly expected center Mike Pouncey to get the ball to him out of the shotgun.  Errant snaps were the problem for the Gators in week one and it gave everybody a reality check on the post-Tebow era, but it seems that since then Florida has been steadily improving.  I wouldn't get too comfortable with them yet though - once they start facing the meat of the SEC, fans will start to see what Florida is really like this year.

Now that I'm finished bashing schools from the east, let's look at the happy surprises of 2010.

1. Denard Robinson (QB, Michigan)
When you think about it, this shouldn't be that much of a surprise.  When Rich Rodriguez came to Ann Arbor a couple years back, his new offense encouraged the transfers of quarterbacks Ryan Mallet (Arkansas) and Steven Threet (Arizona St.), but made way for Denard Robinson, who has amassed a total of 1,230 yards and 8 TDs over three games.  That includes the 502-yard performance in South Bend against Notre Dame which pole vaulted Robinson to the top of the Heisman race.  As for the rest of the year, Michigan has some stat-padding games coming up against Bowling Green and Indiana, but the final stretch will be the real test for Robinson, who will have to end his year against Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus.

2. The Pac-10
In the preseason USA Today Coaches Poll, Oregon led the Pac-10 at #11 and Oregon St. had the only other ranking at #22 (USC fell in at #14 on the AP poll).  Look at the Coaches Poll now and you'll see Oregon at #6, Arizona at #16, Stanford following at #17, and Oregon St. only 50 points out of the rankings (which is pretty minuscule considering the poll ranges from #1 Alabama with 1,470 points to Oklahoma St. with 103 points.)  The Associated Press shows the Pac-10 even more respect, putting Oregon at #5, Arizona at #14, Stanford at #16, USC at #18, and Oregon St. at #24.  Even Arizona St. and California received 3 votes apiece from them.  Now the numbers do tell a big part of the story and the rankings are a compilation of some of the highest-valued opinions in all of sports on the matter, but the performances of these schools really do justify their places in the polls.  Oregon has outscored its opponents 189-13, with the 13 coming from Tennessee in an initially close game in week 2, Arizona just pulled off an upset of previously #10 Iowa this weekend to earn their place in the top 25, and Stanford's offense has led its team to a 3-0 start as well, although they play Oregon, Notre Dame, and USC in the next three weeks.  The Pac-10 looks to be back from a disappointing 2009 as it begins its first year of the post-"Pete Carroll and USC run the table" era.

3. Lower-Division Schools
I already talked about James Madison and Jacksonville State beating Virginia Tech and Ole Miss, respectively, but there are other schools that deserve credit as well.  First, there is South Dakota, who prevailed over neighboring Minnesota in week 2.  North Dakota St. edged Kansas 6-3 in the opening week, Gardner-Webb beat Akron 41-38 in week 2, and Liberty defeated Ball St. 27-23 in the same week.  Each of these victories were by FCS (or Football Championship Subdivision) schools over FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) schools, which, to put it in perspective, is like having Pop-Warner team overpower a high-school team.  So congratulations to the FCS, for fighting hard and introducing a little unpredictability in the most predictable games.

Well that's all for now.  The rankings will start to jump around as conference play begins, and soon we will have some great matchups to talk about.  Next week, pay attention to #1 Alabama at #10 Arkansas, #12 South Carolina at #17 Auburn, #3 Boise St. at #24 Oregon St., and #22 West Virginia at #15 LSU.  Until then, eat up the hours by creating fantasy teams!