Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Stephen Strasburg IS the Most Valuable Player

Well, it depends on how you define "valuable."  On the field, he can't be compared to guys like Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, or Albert Pujols, who all have played in at least 135 games this year against Strasburg's 12, but in terms of the revenue - nobody can come close to the amount Strasburg brings in per game played.

This year, Stephen Strasburg started 12 games for the Nationals, seven at home and five on the road.  He went 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA, 92 strikeouts, 17 walks, and 68 innings pitched.  That includes his unforgettable debut in which he beat the Pirates while striking out 14 and walking zero in seven innings.

He more than lived up to the hype until he went on the DL on August 24, which he will remain on until next season while he rehabs from a successful Tommy John surgery.  But during the time that Strasburg was on the Nat's active roster, he was bringing in the Benjamins (a replica jersey costs just about $100) like no one else.  The best way to show his impact is through the attendance differences:  On days that Strasburg did not pitch, an average of 21,734 fans went through the gates.  On day that he did pitch? 37,298.  That's an increase of 15,564 fans in attendance wheneve the name "Strasburg" is penciled in at pitcher.

In order to turn that into a dollar number, look at the Team Marketing Report's Fan Cost Index.  This index estimates the amount a group of four fans (2 adults, 2 children) will spend at a sporting event, with the factors being tickets, food, merchandise, etc.  The Nationals' FCI this season is 215.52, 20 more than the MLB average (which can no doubt be attributed to the sale of Strasburg-related items).  Divide that number by four to get the average any one spends at a game and you get 53.88.

Now with each fan spending $53.88 at a non-Strasburg game, the total revenue comes out to a little more than $1.17 million.  But when Strasburg pitches - it's at just over $2 million.  So by using simple subtraction, we find that Strasburg brings in an extra $830,000 every time he is scheduled to start.  If you find another player who does that for an MLB franchise, then you can discredit this whole article (it can be safely assumed that LeBron James has a similar affect on revenue).

So there you have it.  Stephen Strasburg is baseball's Most Valuable Player.

But, for the sake of argument, let's look at some more different ways of determining the MVP.  If we're going by contract size (value to the team), Alex Rodriguez and his now $33 million-a-year contact should have won the MVP award each year since 2001.

Or, you could say that the person who plays all 162 games each year should win it because that person is most valuable to his manager.

Or, they could have the fans and players vote on around five candidates while the managers pick another four.  And the fans vote in one more that they think got snubbed.  Then everybody argues about how this guy isn't worthy and this guy has stats ten times better than all of the other nominees and everybody goes to bed angry.  Eventually Ichiro wins because he always get the most votes (hmmm, sound like the All-Star game to anyone?).

Back to reality.  The current way of selecting the MVP is perfectly acceptable, and the playoffs will have a big impact on that race.  With Albert Pujols' Cardinals just a game or two form elimination, will he be able to pull off another victory?  Maybe it will be Joey Votto, who has quietly kept himself in the top rankings of nearly every major stat category.  Or will Carlos Gonzalez or Troy Tulowitzki lead the Rockies on another impossible October run and earn it that way?

Only one thing is for certain - the Pirates are still the epitome of lose (lose being used as a noun to represent nearly two decades of sub-.500 seasons).  Oh, Pittsburgh.

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